Here are 10 key takeaways from the results so far:
This time NDA sarkar
As per the trends on the Election Commission website, the BJP is leading on 241 seats, which is 31 seats short of majority and a whopping 62 seats less than its tally in the 2019 polls.
Lok Sabha Elections
Assembly Elections
If the trends hold, the BJP will be relying heavily on its NDA partners to form the government.
Far from ‘400 paar’, it seems the BJP will have to contend with a shaky majority based entirely on its NDA partners sticking together.
Despite setback, BJP improves vote share; but Congress does better
Though the BJP is leading on around 240 seats, much less than the 303 seats it won in 2019, its vote share has seen a slight improvement.
In 2019, the BJP had secured around 37.36% of the total votes, this time trends show that the saffron party may see a vote share of 38.17% — a possible improvement of 0.81 percentage points.
The Congress meanwhile seems set to corner 23.45% of the vote share — an improvement of nearly 4 percentage points compared to the 19.49% it registered in the 2019 polls.
Return of regional parties
Regional parties across 5 states have made major gains in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to the latest trends released by the Election Commission.
In Bihar, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) is leading on 15 seats while the BJP is leading on 13. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) may win up to 5 seats while the Rashtriya Janata Dal is leading on 3. In 2019, the BJP had won 17 seats on its own, JD(U) 16.
In Jharkhand, the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is leading on 3 seats. On January 31, Hemant Soren was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate. He handed over his resignation letter to the Governor of Jharkhand, who appointed Champai Soren as his designated replacement. The BJP is leading on 8 seats. In 2019, it had won 12 of 14 seats.
The power of the region parties was particularly pronounced in Maharashtra where the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar-led NCPSP made major gains.
In 2019, the BJP had won 23 of 48 seats while its ally Shiv Sena had won 18. This time around, however, the BJP is leading on just 11 seats while the Ajit Pawar-led NCP is leading on just 1 seat and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena may secure around 5 seats.
Meanwhile, Shiv Sena UBT is leading on 11 seats and Sharad Pawar’s NCP on 7. The Congress meanwhile is leading the charge with leads on 12 seats.
In the most shocking setback for the BJP, the party is leading in just 32 of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. A far cry from the 62 seats it won in the 2019 polls. The Samajwadi Party on the other hand has made major gains and is leading on 37 seats, it won only 5 seats in the last general elections.
In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress seems set to better its 2019 tally. It is currently leading on 31 seats, the TMC had won 22 seats in 2019. Meanwhile, the BJP, which had won 18 seats in 2019, is leading on just 10 seats this time.
Major BJP setback in Hindi heartland
In 2019, the BJP had won 176 of the 225 seats in the 10 states the Hindi belt is composed of: Uttar Pradesh (62 seats won out of 80), Uttarakhand (5/5), Bihar (17/40), Jharkhand (11/14), Chhattisgarh (9/11), Madhya Pradesh (28/29), Delhi (7/7), Haryana (10/10), Himachal Pradesh (3/4) and Rajasthan (24/25).
This time around, the BJP is leading in just 127 of the 225 seats. The saffron party seems to be heading for the biggest setbacks in Uttar Pradesh (leading in just 32 of 80 seats), Haryana (5/10) and Rajasthan (14/25).
The saffron party also looks set to perform worse this time around in Bihar (13/40) and Jharkhand (8/14).
In Uttarakhand (5/5), Chhattisgarh (10/11), Madhya Pradesh (29/29), Delhi (7/7) and Himachal Pradesh (4/4), the BJP seems set to either keep its dominance or even better its 2019 performance.
No Congress-mukt Bharat
The BJP’s target of ridding India of the Congress now seems even farther out of reach. In 2019, the Congress was reduced to just 52 seats, however, it seems set to make major gains and is leading on over 95 seats.
Buoyed by seat-sharing arrangements with its INDIA bloc members, the Congress is leading on seats in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Telangana.
In Telangana, the Congress is leading on 8 of 17 seats. In 2019, it had won just 3 seats in the state.
In Maharashtra, the Congress is leading on 11 seats. In 2019, it had won just 1 seat.
In Rajasthan, the Congress had failed to open its Lok Sabha account in 2019. This time around, it is leading on 8 seats.
In Haryana too, the Congress had won 0 seats in the last elections but now seems set to win around 5.
Rahul resurgence, impact of Bharat Jodo Yatra
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s south-north Bharat Jodo Yatra, and subsequent east-west Nyay Yatra seems to have had a major positive impact for the party.
States he visited during the yatras have seen major shift towards the Congress.
Rahul, who is contesting from Wayanad in Kerala and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh, seems to win both seats with large margins.
As per latest trends, Rahul has cornered 59.53% of votes, leading against Communist Party of India’s Annie Raja. BJP is coming at a distant third.
In Rae Bareli, Rahul seems set to secure at least 66% of the votes — nearly 10 percentage points more than what his mother Sonia Gandhi commanded when she won the seat in 2019.
No visual impact of Ram temple
The pran pratishtha of Ram temple in Ayodhya was seen by experts as a clincher for the BJP in UP and beyond. The strategy, however, seems to have not at all worked for the saffron party.
In Faizabad — the Lok Sabha seat under which Ayodhya comes — SP candidate Awadhesh Prasad is narrowly leading against BJP candidate Lallu Singh.
BJP makes gains in Odisha
Despite the major setbacks in the Hindi heartland states, the BJP seems set to make strides in Odisha where it is leading in 19 of the 21 seats. The BJD meanwhile is leading on just 1 seat.
In 2019, the BJD had won 12 seats and the BJP 8.
Development vs freebies
Can freebies win you elections? Or to put it more succinctly, can freebies alone win elections? It seems not.
Telangana under KCR was a showcase state of freebies model. It helped him win 2 consecutive elections. But the freebie-led model reached its expiry in the third assembly elections. All the freebies could not help KCR win Telangana for the third time.
Next, YSRCP under Jagan Mohan had depended a lot on its freebies to win the Andhra assembly elections again. But Chandrababu Naidu, with his promise of more, has managed to win over voters and the state.
There is no denying that freebies play their part in winning elections. But the thing with freebies is that someone can always promise more. But it is increasingly becoming obvious: Freebies may be necessary but not sufficient to win elections.
Upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana to be nail-biters
The major twist in the Lok Sabha results now point to heated battles in upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana.
Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar-led NCPSP along with the Congress now seem to be in a very strong position going into the assembly elections in the state.
The arrest of Jharkhand former CM Hemant Soren seems to have positively impacted the party, possibly due to sympathy vote as the JMM has repeatedly said the BJP is leading a political witch-hunt against the party. Along with a resurgent Congress, the assembly polls in Jharkhand is likely to be a tough contest for the BJP.
In Haryana, the BJP government is already facing the ire of disgruntled farmers and the JJP, which has 10 assembly seats, has pulled away from the alliance. With the Congress now in a stronger position, the polls — to be held sometime in October this year — will see a tough contest with the BJP fighting an uphill battle.
