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D Gukesh is being touted as favourite against reigning champion Ding Liren in the 14-game World Championship match which starts in Singapore on Monday. The Indian challenger is world No. 5 at Elo 2783 and Ding is No. 23 with Elo rating of 2728. The former is currently playing at his peak while the latter’s best rating was Elo 2816 six years ago.
It must be remembered though, that while tournaments of a similar calibre can offer a player a mental cushion of half a point or one a round-robin format, the nature of head-to-head battle over 14 classical games doesn’t offer any incidental advantage. This missing ‘mental cushion’ must be top-most on the minds of the challenger and the defending champion.
For context, Gukesh won the Candidates tournament earlier this year in Toronto without needing to beat his closest rivals Hikaru Nakamura, Ian Nepomniachtchi and Fabiano Caruana. The trio slipped in games between themselves and against weaker players and that ensured Gukesh became leader of the pack.
In head-to-head Matchplay, there is no pack, even if the contenders are hunting in packs (read coaches, trainers, seconds, mentors) to get the better of the rival group. One has to hunt down the big guy down to seal the deal. Not that Gukesh has not defeated Caruana or the players of a similar level, but Championship and its undercurrents are different.
You have to beat one designated player. Not one or two of many. And that becomes difficult if there are a spate of draws or if you face a defeat. Suddenly, you are lured to play the person then and not the pieces and board position.
“Too much strategy will be incorrect for the match,” felt coach and GM RB Ramesh. “You have to just go and play your normal chess. I think that’s what Gukesh would do,” he forecast.
“He will play long games and try to tire Ding out. The longer you keep your opponent under stressful situations, you are poking at his weakness and more likely, he would make mistakes over the board. So just keep tension for long. That’s the only strategy I can think of for Gukesh.”
Sounds familiar? Yes. Just that an Indian was at the receiving end of such a scenario when Viswanathan Anand played Magnus Carlsen at his home turf in 2013 while defending his crown.
Gukesh has played about 150 games this year (all formats) and more than 40 of those games lasted more than 60 moves. The corresponding figure for Ding is about 10 in 100.
Of the disbalance in numbers, Ramesh said, “Ding has to believe in himself. He should not think too much about Gukesh or his performance. He just has to concentrate and try to do his job well. That’s entirely in his control. If he can play with that mindset very strongly, Ding can put up a good fight,” felt Ramesh.
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