MUMBAI: Six months is a long time in politics. The ruling Mahayuti had suffered a major setback in the state in the Lok Sabha elections. But it has made a crushing comeback in the assembly elections, winning 230 of the state’s 288 assembly seats – at 80%, that’s more than a three-fourths majority. MVA, which led in 153 assembly segments in the LS polls, has been reduced to an abysmal 46 seats in the state.
The Ladki Bahin Yojana, its cash transfer scheme for women, is being widely credited as a gamechanger. Consolidation of the OBC vote and pro-Hindutva vote have acted as a force multiplier.
For the Mahayuti alliance of BJP, CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, this is a remarkable turnaround. BJP, apart from scoring a hat-trick of assembly poll victories – crossing 100 seats each time – has won its biggest mandate ever in the state with its 132 eclipsing its 2014 tally of 122. The victory, under deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, heralds his return as a strong contender for the top post.
It is also Congress’s worst-ever showing in its one-time bastion of Maharashtra (which sends the largest number of MPs to Lok Sabha after UP). The party had been reduced to 42 assembly seats during the 2014 Modi wave. Now it has managed to win less than half that tally, with just 16 seats.
Equally significant is that the verdict has legitimised Eknath Shinde‘s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar‘s NCP. They can now claim to be the real inheritors of the party leadership. Shiv Sena has won 57 seats compared to Shiv Sena (UBT)’s 20. And Ajit Pawar’s NCP has won 41 seats compared to the NCP (Sharad Pawar’s) 10 seats.
Uddhav Thackeray, who was anointed party chief by his father Bal Thackeray, could well be staring at political oblivion, having lost control of the party’s vote base to a non-Thackeray. For 84-year-old Sharad Pawar whose pragmatic political alignments have helped him play a long innings, this presents a existential crisis and perhaps the end of the road for the party as he had envisaged it.
The Ladki Bahin scheme, among other sops, a good monsoon and counter-consolidation of OBCs in response to Maratha quota aggression during the LS polls were factors that held across regions to deliver a saffron sweep.
Hindutva consolidation through slogans like Yogi Adityanath’s ‘Batenge Toh Katenge’ tapped into concerns within the Hindu community that the Muslim vote had consolidated behind MVA.
Within Mahayuti, BJP has achieved a strike rate of 88.5%, with wins in 132 of the 149 seats contested. This is all the more impressive given that it contested the largest number of seats among the six main parties. Shiv Sena’s strike rate was 70.4% while NCP’s was 69.4%. Within MVA, Shiv Sena has the highest strike rate of 21%, winning 20 of the 95 seats contested. Congress’s strike rate is 15.8% while that of NCP (SP) is 11.6%.
Observers also said Mahayuti setback in LS polls was largely a vote against incumbency, not the state leadership. “There was an anti-Modi vote in LS polls and a united campaign by INDIA bloc. Concerns about the Constitution being changed if BJP had absolute majority was a huge issue,” said an NCP member.
In Vidarbha and Marathwada, where farmer anger over low prices for cotton and soyabean crop was expected to go against govt, Mahayuti emerged victorious. Opposition was unable to exploit the issue and Mahayuti countered it by offering up to 20% support to MSP to cover price variations if elected. It had also announced a free power scheme for farmers with agricultural pumps up to 7.5 HP in the run-up to polls.
In Marathwada, Maratha quota agitation had scarred BJP in LS polls, leading to defeat of stalwarts like Raosaheb Danve and Pankaja Munde. But the impact of Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange waned in this election after he withdrew his initial plan to field candidates. Counter-consolidation of OBCs in response to Maratha agitation helped BJP.
In north Maharashtra, Mahayuti had faced a major setback in LS polls owing to export restrictions on onion crop. Ahead of assembly polls, Centre slashed export duty on onions and removed the minimum export price.
In western Maharashtra, where NCP factions were expected to clash, Ajit Pawar’s party dominated. This is primarily because most of NCP’s satraps who command a following in their constituencies regardless of party affiliations had joined Ajit Pawar. Their control over the rural network of cooperative sugar factories, banks and dairies helped them sail through.
In Konkan and Mumbai Metropolitan Region, which is largely urban, Mahayuti’s dominance in LS polls continued into the assembly elections. In Mumbai, once Shiv Sena’s bastion, BJP dominated by winning 15 seats. Sena UBT managed a respectable 10 seats, a higher tally than Eknath Shinde’s 6 seats. Sena UBT won the Mahim seat where Shiv Sena Bhavan is located.
However, finally it was Mahayuti’s recognition of the growing number of women voters that won it the greatest dividend. Gender ratio in women voters has risen from 929 in 2011 to 933 in 2024. Ladki Bahin Yojana, patterned on MP govt’s Ladli Behna scheme, has been key to Mahayuti’s win. It provides a monthly stipend of Rs 1,500 to underprivileged women between 21 and 65 with an annual family income below Rs 2.5 lakh. Mahayuti promised to raise it to Rs 2,100 if elected and claimed MVA would halt the scheme if it came to office.
Over 2.4 crore women received the stipend in their bank accounts by voting day. Many had received stipends worth Rs 7,500 in three instalments. The instalments began rolling out in Aug, with the Nov stipend being delivered in Oct to beat the code of conduct.
Besides, the state also announced 3 free gas cylinders for 52 lakh households and free higher education for girls from families with annual income of below Rs 8 lakh. It’s evident the women-oriented schemes enthused women voters since there was a six percentage point surge in female voter turnout in the state – from 59.2% in the 2019 assembly polls to 65.2%.