Based on collections in May for transactions in April, latest data released by the finance ministry on Saturday estimated collections from domestic sources to be 15.3% higher, while those from imports were 4.5% lower, indicating a slowdown in the value of shipments into the country, which may partly be due to a fall in commodity prices.
For the last two years, higher than budgeted GST kitty have helped the Centre shore up its overall collections, and lower fiscal deficit.
“These collections indicate the beginning of a new normal in excess of Rs 1.7 lakh crore in FY25 compared to Rs 1.6 lakh crore during FY24. This is in line with the recent GDP estimates which indicate a robust economy, which does not appear to have been impacted much either by the election season or the heat wave across the country. The resilience shown by the GST collections, without significant seasonal or event-based variations across recent months, indicates the maturity of the GST system. There will now be renewed confidence in moving ahead with the next stage of reforms in the coming months, without significant concerns on the revenue impact that such reforms could elicit,” said M S Mani, partner at Deloitte India.
Within domestic sources, central GST saw a 14.1% higher collection at Rs 32,409 crore, while state GST kitty swelled Rs 40,265 crore.
In May, Manipur SGST collections were 48% higher, which may also be a pointer to a return to normalcy in the state. Next up was Delhi which saw a 46% jump.
Among the laggards were Meghalaya (20% fall), Arunachal Pradesh (18% decline), Nagaland (14% fall) and Himachal (1% rise).
“A rise in GST collections from Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Puducherry and Arunachal Pradesh suggests growing consumption in these developing regions, indicating broader economic progress. Additionally, increased GST in northern states like Delhi, Uttar Pradesh etc might be due to election spending and a surge in purchases of fans, coolers and ACs caused by higher temperatures compared to last year,” said Saurabh Agarwal, tax partner at EY India.