The strategy isn’t new. BJP, which has been in power in Haryana since 2014, had made Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi, the chief minister.Earlier this year, the party replaced Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC. Both moves were seen as attempts to consolidate sections of the nonJat votes. Over the past decade, the party has been steadily mopping up non-Jat votes to win both in the assembly and Lok Sabha polls.
“The approach seems to be working for BJP in these elections as well. The state is already polarised on the lines of Jat and nonJat politics. BJP has now found another base by appeasing the Sainis and others in the OBC group,” says Satish Tyagi, a political expert, author and senior journalist from Rohtak.
However, this time, there are new challenges. For instance, there’s no overarching narrative cutting across constituencies. “BJP seems to be losing ground in constituencies with the highest population of Jats, such as Rohtak, Sonipat, Hisar, Bhiwani Mahendargarh and Kurukshetra.
That’s because Jats, who are feeling sidelined under the BJP regime, are uniting against the party,” says Tyagi.
Also, a long-standing but little talked about divide between Jats and Punjabis appears to be playing a role in the elections. Punjabis (10-12% of the state’s population) have been gravitating to the BJP, particularly because the community felt sidelined in the race for govt jobs in previous regimes. “Former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s promise of reservation for Jats had further widened the rift, making caste lines more rigid,” according to political commentator Hemant Atri. A Jat reservation bill was passed in 2016 after a months-long agitation, from which BJP benefited in the 2019 Lok Sabha and subsequent assembly polls.
The appointment of Khattar as CM brought cheer to the Punjabi community but it did little to bridge the growing caste divide.
The move to make Saini the CM is seen as an attempt to garner support of the state’s OBC population, which constitutes around 20-22% of the electorate. The Saini community, although only about 2.5% of the state’s population, is seen as a gateway to the larger OBC demographic. Even so, Nayab Singh’s elevation was not universally welcomed and some OBC groups, like the Yadavs, raised questions about their representation.
“It’s good to see the OBCs rising,” said Ashu Yadav, a medical store employee in Rohtak. “But our caste should also be accommodated.”
Congress though does not see Saini’s appointment as having much of an impact. “Nothing has changed (after he was elected CM). People are confused as to who their CM is. Some people still think it’s Khattar,” said Selja Kumari, the Congress LS candidate from Sirsa.
Jats and Punjabis have emerged as two distinct blocs this time with their support lying with Congress and BJP, respectively, although there’s also the urban-rural divide to contend with. While a majority of Punjabi voters — settled mostly in urban areas — support BJP, some sections continue to back Congress. However, most Jats consider Congress, INLD, and JJP their preferred parties. In rural areas, there appears to be barely any support for BJP this time, thanks to the farmer protests.
“The Jat-Punjabi issue is not being openly discussed by parties but people openly talk about it,” says Rohtak-based journalist Virender Phogat.
Many Punjabis seem to rejoice in the fact that they aren’t governed by Jats anymore. “The previous govts gave all benefits and jobs to Jats. There was an unsaid rule that nearly nine out of 10 govt jobs would go to Jats. It’s good that that’s changing,” says Piyush Kataria, a shopkeeper in Rohtak district.
