A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate contesting the Kundarki Assembly seat in Uttar Pradesh (UP) is leading against 11 challengers from the Muslim community. BJP’s Ramveer Thakur has garnered over 1,44,637 in this Muslim-majority constituency. If victorious, the BJP will reclaim the seat after a gap of 30 years.
Kundarki, traditionally a Samajwadi Party (SP) stronghold, is one of nine UP Assembly seats where by-elections were held alongside Vidhan Sabha elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
Assembly Election Results
Should Thakur win, he will be the first BJP candidate to secure the seat in over three decades. The BJP last triumphed in Kundarki in the 1993 UP Vidhan Sabha election, with Chandra Vijay Singh representing the party.
Strong Lead for BJP
Current trends suggest a near-certain victory for Ramveer Thakur, who has established a significant lead over his nearest rival from the SP. Thakur leads against SP’s Mohammad Rizwan, with the gap widening as votes are counted. Other candidates in the race include Chand Babu of the Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), Mohammad Varish of the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen, and Rafatullah of the Bahujan Samaj Party.
Kundarki, located in the Moradabad district and part of the Sambhal Lok Sabha constituency, has a Muslim population comprising 60% of its residents.
Notably, the BJP fielded the sole Hindu candidate, Ramveer Thakur, among 11 Muslim contenders. Mohammad Rizwan, representing the INDIA bloc, has nearly four decades of political experience. Rizwan previously won the Kundarki seat in 2002 but lost to the BSP’s Akbar Husain in 2007. He rebounded with consecutive wins in 2012 and 2017. A BJP victory in Kundarki would mark a significant setback for SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, as the constituency has long been considered an SP bastion.
Controversies Surrounding the Polls
The Samajwadi Party accused the administration of malpractice during voting. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav alleged that police personnel unlawfully checked voter cards and Aadhaar IDs, intimidating voters and preventing members of minority communities from casting their ballots. He demanded repolling at Kundarki, claiming systematic efforts to disenfranchise Muslim voters.
In response, the Election Commission of India instructed the Uttar Pradesh government to ensure fair elections. It also suspended seven police personnel, including two sub-inspectors, for breaching electoral guidelines.
Factors Behind BJP’s Surge
With 25 out of 32 counting rounds completed, the BJP’s likely victory can be attributed to several factors, including a split in Muslim votes, which favoured the BJP. Additionally, anti-incumbency sentiments and reports of factionalism among SP leaders may have weakened their position.
The constituency also recorded the highest voter turnout among the nine seats where bypolls were conducted, which may have benefitted the BJP if there was consolidation of Hindu votes. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s campaign emphasising “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas” appears to have resonated with voters. BJP leaders,
Of the nine UP Assembly seats, BJP leads in six, SP in two, and Rashtriya Lok Dal (an ally of BJP) in one. The results in Kundarki and other constituencies could further bolster the BJP’s position ahead of the 2024 general elections.