By Harsh Vardhan Shringla Former Foreign Secretary of India, Ambassador to US
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed ‘Ab ki baar, Trump Sarkar’ at the Howdy Modi event in 2019, he foreshadowed a future where India and the US, under Trump’s leadership, would drive forward a robust, dual-powered partnership. Now, with Trump’s return to the White House, that prediction stands to usher in a new chapter in India-US relations.
Trump’s second term promises a refreshed approach to India-US trade and economic ties. Though India faced some friction over trade issues in his first term, his renowned deal-making instinct created significant opportunities, and his results-driven pragmatism is likely to open more doors for India. Notably, Trump was vocal about global economic rebalancing even before the pandemic, criticising the distortions caused by China’s policies—an area where India’s concerns strongly resonate.
Trump’s regard for India and the Indian diaspora is well known. And where previous US administrations only issued threats to cut military assistance to Pakistan because of its support for terrorism, Trump acted—delivering a strategic shift in support of India’s security needs. His recent tweet on violence against Hindu communities in Bangladesh reflects his acute awareness of the subcontinent’s dynamics and adds to his established goodwill toward India.
Trump’s commitment to strengthening defence ties with India was a landmark of his first term, especially given his scepticism toward traditional alliances like NATO. Under Trump’s presidency, in 2018 India was elevated to Strategic Trade Authorisation Tier 1 status which allows it to access military and dual use technologies license-free. Underpinning all of this is the personal bond Trump shares with Prime Minister Modi—a connect that helped steer our ties before and will continue to facilitate diplomatic alignment. Trump accompanied Modi to the Howdy Modi event, one of the most unique and significant events in the India-US relationship, and then he visited India for the ‘Namaste Trump’ event. With Trump’s return to power, the India-US relationship is poised to advance in ways that will benefit both nations, driven by a shared vision and mutual respect under leaders who understand the importance of action over words.
India is pivotal to the world today as a powerhouse of economic growth, digital innovation, and democratic stability, shaping global progress and regional security and in the recent past, regardless of party lines, US presidents have treated the ‘India account’ with increasing care, placing the relationship on firmer ground. This was especially visible during Trump’s first term. Trump popularised the term Indo-Pacific and renamed the Hawaii-based US Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command, underscoring the increasing significance of the Indian Ocean in the US’ strategic considerations. Trump also revitalised an otherwise moribund Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) into an initiative promoting peace, collaboration, and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
The institutionalisation of the India-US relationship reached new heights with the 2+2 Dialogue initiative. Launched in 2018, the 2+2 Dialogue has marked a shift from sporadic engagement to deep strategic cooperation.
Factoring such milestones during Trump’s first term, India approaches Trump’s return with enthusiasm and confidence. The Modi-Trump partnership is expected to focus on significant deliverables in the near future. A potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) aimed at deepening economic ties and reducing trade barriers between the two countries is a key goal. Both leaders can also focus on aligning their strategies on regional and global issues, particularly in terms of promoting peace and stability. With shared concerns over conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and Asia, both Modi and Trump are committed to fostering a rules-based international order. With Trump’s comeback to the oval office, the trajectory of India-US relations appears poised for a significant upward trajectory.