Most of these seats have the dominance of OBCs – Yadavs, Kurmis, Nishads, Kushwahas, Rajbhars, Nonias – Brahmins, Thakurs and Bhumihars are also in large numbers. In fact, this is the only region out of seven where Bhumihar votes play a role and send people’s representatives of their caste. To understand the pattern of this phase, one must understand the voting patterns seen in the past six phases.
Dalits’ Dilemma
About two hours after phase 3 polling came to an end on May 7, in a surprise move, BSP chiefMayawati removed her nephew Akash Anand from the position of national coordinator and her political successor, barely five months after she had appointed him.
According to political observers, the decision was not formed by Akash’s speeches which led to FIRs, but voting trend in the phase 3 which showed that a fraction of BSP’s core voters, Jatavs, were getting vocal about their ‘disillusionment’ with the party leadership and seen drifting away. While non-Jatavs have historically shifted towards BJP, this time, as a new trend, a few Jatavs were seen moving towards SP-Cong alliance as well. “That was the time when BSP chief Mayawatidecided to go for a safety and damage control exercise,” says a highly placed source.
According to observers by removing Akash, BSP chief Mayawati wanted to save her nephew from failed launching as a section might begin associating his launching with the shift in Jatav votes — though it thinned as election moved towards east. The phenomenon of the division in Jatav voters may come as an eye-opener for the BSP, which has remained complacent elections after elections for the past around three decades ever since Kanshi Ram began expanding the BSP by mainly wooing the Dalits.
“There was a time when we all were steadily behind BSP,” says Mahesh Prasad of Batrauli in Kushinagar. However, in this election we will certainly look at the winnability of the candidates more than anything else, Prasad further says. Why to waste our vote just to prove loyalty when a BSP candidate is unable to throw a fight, questions Ram Bhor, a native of Kashipur village in Deoria.
Observers see two main reasons behind the shift towards the Cong-SP alliance even though it may not be substantial. First, ever since the 2017 Assembly polls, Mayawati has failed to present a strong force in the state and even created a perception among the masses of not contesting the polls too strongly. Secondly, a section of Dalits,which had been traditionally with Congress before the ’90s when the BSP emerged as their last resort, saw some value in INDIA bloc narrative that if BJP comes to power with huge numbers it will remove their reservation and change the Constitution.
However, the big question is whether the Congress-SP will be able to capitalise on this gain or whether BSP chief will rework on the strategy to regain the lost confidence of Jatavs on her and also counter yet another political threat rising slowly yet steadily from this poll onwards – Azad Party chief Chandrashekhar Azad.
It’s
This drifting of Dalits and lack of ‘formidable’ BSP candidates has turned the contest bipolar on majority of seats, including 13 going to the polls. Varanasi, Gorakhpur, Ballia, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Ghosi, Kushinagar, Salempur all are witnessing a direct fight between BJP and INDIA bloc candidates. “It would mean that the winners will have to manage over 45-46% votes. A large number of BJP candidates had won by a large margin in 2019. Although INDIA bloc is getting a new set of voters, it will need to really jack up its tally of votes to bridge that gap,” says a political analyst.
SP’s Smart Ticket Distribution
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has invested some thoughts in distributing tickets, even if that meant replacing the candidates several times. “He fielded just five Yadav candidates and four Muslims to avoid the tag of an M-Y party. It was also a bid to avoid any counter-polarisation against the party,” says a UP watcher, adding “he also kept caste equations in mind while deciding the names of candidates.”
“He has fielded Rajiv Rai in Ghosi keeping in mind a large number of Bhumihars in the constituency,” he says, “this is the seat which belonged to Kalpnath Rai.” Similarly, constituencies like Kushinagar (Pintu Sainthwar), Ballia (Sanatan Pandey), Chandauli (Virendra Singh), Mirzapur (Ramesh Chand Bind) are examples of smart ticketing, keeping local caste considerations,” he adds.
Silent voter
There are two sets of silent voters who are generally out of pollsters’ radar – women, especially the rural women, and beneficiaries. These voters which were neither heard of nor talked about earlier, seem to have not only gained prominence but also are gradually forming a strong and stable voter base. The more the rural women have been empowered even at home with facilities like toilets, Ujjwala scheme and an affordable house for the family, free ration, and improvement in law-and-order situation, the more they are becoming vocal and independent with their opinions.
“Isme toh koi sandeh nahin hai ki Yogi raj mein koi darr nahi lagta hai kahin bahar jaane mein (There is no doubt that women are not scared of going out in Yogi govt),” Chanda Devi, a former pradhan at Rampurka Lal village in Deoria, says, giving a hint of her voting preference. Some 250 km away from Deoria, the voices in Basti are no different when it comes to getting the benefits of govt schemes. At Nathanpur village, around two kilometres off the Barabanki-Bahraich highway is Meera Devi (name changed) running a grocery shop to earn the living for her two children. “There is no doubt that fear among the women has come down in the past over six years,” she says, and adds that things need to further improve to give a free and fair society to the women.
Mandir, Jobs
Although Ram Mandir is not being talked about, there is a huge chunk of voters who are keeping construction of temples at Ayodhya in mind. Lastly, the anti-incumbency against candidates at several places has only made BJP think-tank and workers toil harder than ever before.