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If these trends hold, one of the significant change would be the return of regional parties on the national scene. Here are some key takeaways
Exit polls got it wrong: It seems almost exit polls got their numbers wrong. They may have got the direction right but the BJP and NDA don’t look like reaching the 350 and 400-mark.
Regional parties power INDIA bloc
Lok Sabha Elections
Assembly Elections
Above anything, what is obvious from these trends is that it is an election which can be described as the “return and rise of the regional parties.” From Maharashtra to Andhra Pradesh to UP to Bihar to West Bengal, regional parties are performing exceedingly well.
Uttar Pradesh:
Uttar Pradesh could be the biggest story of this Lok Sabha elections. Samajwadi Party and Congress are performing much better than what the exit polls had predicted. Akhilesh Yadav has surprised everyone with a strong show and has even helped the Congress improve its performance in the state. Union minister Smriti Irani, who was hailed as a giant killer in the 2019 elections after she defeated Rahul Gandhi, is trailing in the prestigious seat of Amethi. The BJP is also trailing in Faizabad which includes Ayodhya. Clearly, Ram temple is not leading to much gains for the BJP in the state.
Maharashtra:
Maharashtra is also heading towards an interesting contest. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar‘s NCP are performing much better than expected. In fact the oppostion coalition, which also includes the Congress, is ahead of the NDA in the state as of now. The breakaway factions of both Shiv Sena and NCP which aligned with the BJP have failed to perform, pulling down the NDA numbers.
Bihar:
In Bihar, the BJP was expected to do better than the JD(U) but trends show that Nitish Kumar’s party is doing better than the saffron party.
West Bengal:
In West Bengal, Mamata-Banerjee is on track to improve its tally in 2023 LS polls, if these trends hold.
Andhra Pradesh:
In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP is on course to win assembly elections and set to make major gains in Lok Sabha elections.
Odisha:
Odisha seems to be the only exception where BJP is making gains at the cost of the BJD.
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